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A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions derived from ice-core data

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Kwasniok, F. and Lohmann, G. (2012): A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions derived from ice-core data , Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, (19), pp. 595-603 . doi: 10.5194/npg-19-595-2012
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Abstract:

A stochastic Duffing-type oscillator model, i.e noise-driven motion with inertia in a potential landscape, is considered for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions. The potential and noise parameters are estimated from a Greenland ice-core record using a nonlinear Kalman filter. For the period from 60 to 20 ky before present, a bistable potential with a deep well corresponding to a cold stadial state and a shallow well corresponding to a warm interstadial state is found. The system is in the strongly dissipative regime and can be very well approximated by an effective one-dimensional Langevin equation.

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