Noice-Induced Transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation


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lohmann [ at ] awi-bremerhaven.de

Abstract

A simplified box ocean model for the North Atlantic is used to study the influence of multiplicative short-term climate variability on the stability and long-term dynamics of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. A timescale separation between fast temperature and slow salinity fluctuations is used to decouple the dynamical equations resulting in a multiplicative stochastic differential equation for salinity. As a result the qualitative behaviour and the stability of the thermohaline circulation become a function of the noise level. This can be understood in terms of the concept of noise-induced transitions. Furthermore, the role of non-vanishing noise autocorrelation times on the dynamics of the thermohaline circulation is investigated. Red Noise temperature forcing generates new equilibria, which do not have a deterministic counterpart. Our study suggests that noise-induced transitions might have climate relevance.



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Eprint ID
11037
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Timmermann, A. and Lohmann, G. (2000): Noice-Induced Transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation , Journal of Physical Oceanography 30, 8 , pp. 1891-1900 .


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