Cyclones and their possible changes in the Arctic by the end of the twenty first century from regional climate model Simulations


Contact
Sabine.Helbig [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Characteristics of cyclones (frequency, intensity and size) and their changes in the Arctic region in a warmer climate have been analyzed with the use of the HIRHAM regional climate model simulations with SRES-A1B anthropogenic scenario for the twenty first century. The focus was on cyclones for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. The present-day cyclonic characteristics from HIRHAM simulations are in general agreement with those from ERA–40 reanalysis data. Differences noted for the frequency of cyclones are related with different spatial resolution in the model simulations and reanalysis data. Potential future changes in cyclone characteristics at the end of the twenty first century have been analyzed. According to the model simulations, the frequency of cyclones is increasing in warm seasons and decreasing in cold seasons for a warmer climate in the twenty first century, but these changes are statistically insignificant. Noticeable changes were detected for the intensity and size of cyclones for the both seasons. Significant increase was found for the frequency of weak cyclones during cold season. Further, a general increase in the frequency of small cyclones was calculated in cold seasons, while its frequency decreases in warm seasons.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Peer revision
ISI/Scopus peer-reviewed
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
36321
DOI 10.1007/s00704-014-1272-2

Cite as
Akperov, M. , Mokhov, I. , Rinke, A. , Dethloff, K. and Matthes, H. (2014): Cyclones and their possible changes in the Arctic by the end of the twenty first century from regional climate model Simulations , Theoretical and Applied Climatology . doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1272-2


Share


Citation

Research Platforms
N/A

Campaigns


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item