Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model-data differences at decadal and longer periods


Contact
Thomas.Laepple [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

The variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at multidecadal and longer timescales is poorly constrained, primarily because instrumental records are short and proxy records are noisy. Through applying a new noise filtering technique to a global network of late Holocene SST proxies, we estimate SST variability between annual and millennial timescales. Filtered estimates of SST variability obtained from coral, foraminifer, and alkenone records are shown to be consistent with one another and with instrumental records in the frequency bands at which they overlap. General circulation models, however, simulate SST variability that is systematically smaller than instrumental and proxy-based estimates. Discrepancies in variability are largest at low latitudes and increase with timescale, reaching two orders of magnitude for tropical variability at millennial timescales. This result implies major deficiencies in observational estimates or model simulations, or both, and has implications for the attribution of past variations and prediction of future change.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
36560
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1412077111

Cite as
Laepple, T. and Huybers, P. (2014): Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model-data differences at decadal and longer periods , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . doi: 10.1073/pnas.1412077111


Download
[thumbnail of PNAS-2014-Laepple-1412077111.pdf]
Preview
PDF
PNAS-2014-Laepple-1412077111.pdf

Download (4MB) | Preview
Cite this document as:

Share
Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Citation

Geographical region
N/A

Research Platforms
N/A

Campaigns
N/A


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item