A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback: The PCN Incubation-Panarctic Thermal (PInc-PanTher) Scaling Approach


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guido.grosse [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc–PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a 3-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100.



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Conference (Talk)
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Not peer-reviewed
Publication Status
Published
Event Details
AGU Fall Meeting, 14 Dec 2015 - 18 Dec 2015, San Francisco, USA.
Eprint ID
39318
Cite as
Koven, C. D. , Schuur, E. A. G. , Schädel, C. , Bohn, T. , Burke, E. , Chen, G. , Chen, X. , Ciais, P. , Grosse, G. , Harden, J. , Hayes, D. J. , Hugelius, G. , Jafarov, E. E. , Krinner, G. , Kuhry, P. , Lawrence, D. M. , MacDougall, A. H. , Marchenko, S. S. , McGuire, A. D. , Natali, S. M. , Nicolsky, D. J. , Olefeldt, D. , Peng, S. , Romanovsky, V. , Schaefer, K. , Strauss, J. , Treat, C. C. and Turetsky, M. (2015): A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback: The PCN Incubation-Panarctic Thermal (PInc-PanTher) Scaling Approach , AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, 14 December 2015 - 18 December 2015 .


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info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/338335


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