Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble


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Christian.Stepanek [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.



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ISI/Scopus peer-reviewed
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Eprint ID
40383
DOI 10.5194/cp-12-749-2016

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Howell, F. W. , Haywood, A. M. , Otto-Bliesner, B. L. , Bragg, F. , Chan, W. L. , Chandler, M. A. , Contoux, C. , Kamae, Y. , Abe-Ouchi, A. , Rosenbloom, N. A. , Stepanek, C. and Zhang, Z. (2016): Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble , Climate of the Past, 12 (3), pp. 749-767 . doi: 10.5194/cp-12-749-2016


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