Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes


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Peter.Koehler [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Over the last decade, our understanding of cli- mate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equi- librium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geolog- ical records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitiv- ity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.



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Published
Eprint ID
42148
DOI 10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3

Cite as
von der Heydt, A. S. , Dijkstra, H. A. , van de Wal, R. S. W. , Caballero, R. , Crucifix, M. , Foster, G. L. , Huber, M. , Köhler, P. , Rohling, E. , Valdes, P. J. , Ashwin, P. , Bathiany, S. , Berends, T. , van Bree, L. G. J. , Ditlevsen, P. , Ghil, M. , Haywood, A. M. , Katzav, J. , Lohmann, G. , Lohmann, J. , Lucarini, V. , Marzocchi, A. , Pälike, H. , Baroni, I. R. , Simon, D. , Sluijs, A. , Stap, L. B. , Tantet, A. , Viebahn, J. and Ziegler, M. (2016): Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes , Current Climate Change Reports, 2 (4), pp. 148-158 . doi: 10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3


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