Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios


Contact
Hans.Poertner [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Peer revision
ISI/Scopus peer-reviewed
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
43445
DOI 10.1126/science.aac4722

Cite as
Gattuso, J. P. , Magnan, A. , Bille, R. , Cheung, W. W. L. , Howes, E. L. , Joos, F. , Allemand, D. , Bopp, L. , Cooley, S. R. , Eakin, C. M. , Hoegh-Guldberg, O. , Kelly, R. P. , Poertner, H. O. , Rogers, A. D. , Baxter, J. M. , Laffoley, D. , Osborn, D. , Rankovic, A. , Rochette, J. , Sumaila, U. R. , Treyer, S. and Turley, C. (2015): Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios , Science, 349 (6243), aac4722-1-aac4722-10 . doi: 10.1126/science.aac4722


Share


Citation

Research Platforms
N/A

Campaigns


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item