The Year of Polar Prediction

helge.goessling [ at ]


The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has the mission to enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user- engagement and education activities. The YOPP Core Phase will be from mid-2017 to mid-2019, flanked by a Preparation Phase and a Consolidation Phase. YOPP is a key component of the World Meteorological Organization – World Weather Research Programme (WMO-WWRP) Polar Prediction Project (PPP). The objectives of YOPP are to: 1. Improve the existing polar observing system (better coverage, higher-quality observations); 2. Gather additional observations through field programmes aimed at improving understanding of key polar processes; 3. Develop improved representation of key polar processes in coupled (and uncoupled) models used for prediction; 4. Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systems accounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparseness of observational data; 5. Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean system, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from days to seasons; 6. Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes and assess skill of models representing these linkages; 7. Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions to obtain better quantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user-relevant parameters; 8. Demonstrate the benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of user types and services; 9. Provide training opportunities to generate a sound knowledge base (and its transfer across generations) on polar prediction related issues. The PPP Steering Group provides endorsement for projects that contribute to YOPP to enhance coordination, visibility, communication, and networking. This White Paper is based largely on the much more comprehensive YOPP Implementation Plan (WWRP/PPP No. 3 – 2014), but has an emphasis on Arctic observations.

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Goessling, H. , Jung, T. , Klebe, S. , Gordon, N. , Bauer, P. , Bradley, A. , Bromwich, D. H. , Casati, B. , Chen, P. , Chevallier, M. , Day, J. J. , Doblas-Reyes, F. , Fairall, C. W. , Godoy, O. , Holland, M. , Inoue, J. , Iversen, T. , Liggett, D. , Ljubicic, G. , Massonnet, F. , Makshtas, A. , Mills, B. , Nurmi, P. , Perovich, D. K. , Reid, P. , Renfrew, I. , Smith, G. , Stewart, E. , Svensson, G. , Tolstykh, M. and Yang, Q. (2016): The Year of Polar Prediction , Arctic Observing Summit 2016 .

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