Predictability of Deformation Features in Arctic Sea Ice


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mahdi.mohammadi.aragh [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Sea ice deformation localizes along Linear Kinematic Features (LKFs) that are relevant for the air/ocean/sea-ice interaction and for shipping andmarine operations. At high resolution (< 5km) viscous-plastic sea ice models start to resolve LKFs. Here, we study the short-range (up to 10 days) potential predictability of LKFs in Arctic sea ice using ensemble simulations of an ocean/sea-ice model with a grid point separation of 4.5 km. We analyze the sensitivity of predictability to idealized initial perturbations, mimicking the uncertainties in sea ice analyses, and to growing uncertainty of the atmospheric forcing caused by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. The similarity between pairs of ensemble members is quantified by Pearson correlation and Modified Hausdorff Distance (MHD). In our perfect model experiments, the potential predictability of LKFs, based on the MHD, drops below 0.6 after 4 days in winter. We find that forcing uncertainty (due to limited atmospheric predictability) largely determines LKF predictability on the 10-day time scale, while uncertainties in the initial state impact the potential predictability only within the first 4 days.



Item Type
Conference (Poster)
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Peer revision
Not peer-reviewed
Publication Status
Published
Event Details
Polar Prediction Workshop, 27 Mar 2017 - 30 Mar 2017, Bremerhaven.
Eprint ID
44312
Cite as
Mohammadi Aragh, M. , Losch, M. , Goessling, H. , Hutter, N. and Jung, T. (2017): Predictability of Deformation Features in Arctic Sea Ice , Polar Prediction Workshop, Bremerhaven, 27 March 2017 - 30 March 2017 .


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