Using NWP to assess the influence of the Arctic atmosphere on mid-latitude weather and climate


Contact
Tido.Semmler [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

The influence of the Arctic atmosphere on Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude tropospheric weather and climate is explored by comparing the skill of two sets of 14-day weather forecast experiments using the ECMWF model with and without relaxation of the Arctic atmosphere towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data during the integration. Two pathways are identified along which the Arctic influences mid-latitude weather: a pronounced one over Asia and Eastern Europe, and a secondary one over North America. In general, linkages are found to be strongest (weakest) during boreal winter (summer) when the amplitude of stationary planetary waves over the Northern Hemisphere is strongest (weakest). No discernible Arctic impact is found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific region, which is consistent with predominantly southwesterly flow. An analysis of the flow-dependence of the linkages shows that anomalous northerly flow conditions increase the Arctic influence on mid-latitude weather over the continents. Specifically, an anomalous northerly flow from the Kara Sea towards West Asia leads to cold surface temperature anomalies not only over West Asia but also over Eastern and Central Europe. Finally, the results of this study are discussed in the light of potential mid-latitude benefits of improved Arctic prediction capabilities.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
45223
DOI 10.1007/s00376-017-6290-4

Cite as
Semmler, T. , Jung, T. , Kasper, M. A. and Serrar, S. (2018): Using NWP to assess the influence of the Arctic atmosphere on mid-latitude weather and climate , Advances in Atmospheric Sciences . doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6290-4


Download
[thumbnail of relaxation_paper_surfpar.pdf]
Preview
PDF
relaxation_paper_surfpar.pdf

Download (6MB) | Preview
Cite this document as:

Share
Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Citation

Geographical region

Research Platforms
N/A

Campaigns
N/A


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item