Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends


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Annette.Rinke [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Typically 20–40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979–2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3–4 events/decade in November–December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blocking-like’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January–February).



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Article
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ISI/Scopus peer-reviewed
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
46450
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7def

Cite as
Rinke, A. , Maturilli, M. , Graham, R. M. , Matthes, H. , Handorf, D. , Cohen, L. , Hudson, S. R. and Moore, J. C. (2017): Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends , Environmental Research Letters, 12 (9), 094006 . doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7def


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