Polar Prediction Matters -- A Dialogue Platform to Engage with Forecast Users

kirstin.werner [ at ] awi.de


The Year of Polar Prediction, initiated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and taking place between mid-2017 and mid-2019, attracts considerable attention to polar forecasting. However, our knowledge of what information is really needed at the end of the forecast chain is rather limited. In particular, important insights into the use of environmental forecasts by users operating in polar regions are often restricted to relatively small audiences, such as the participants of specific science meetings. Together with partners from the EU-funded Horizon 2020 projects APPLICATE and Blue-Action, the International Coordination Office for the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and the PPP-subcommittee on “Societal and Economic Research and Application” have initiated a non-peer reviewed forum titled Polar Prediction Matters with the main aim to strengthen the dialogue between polar forecast providers and users. The platform facilitates discussion between those that research, develop, and provide polar environmental forecasts and those that use (or could use) polar environmental forecasts to guide socio-economic decisions. Polar Prediction Matters features written contributions that provide a range of individual views on how polar environmental forecasts (and other environmental information such as satellite imagery) are actually used, what additional information is needed, and what factors might limit the effective use of forecasts. The majority of contributions offers perspectives from forecast users, but contributions by providers (meteorological and sea-ice services and climate scientists) and social scientists concerning the creation, delivery, and utilization of forecast information and services are also included. Collectively, these diverse perspectives will contribute to a better understanding of the actual needs of users, thus helping guide research towards significantly improved prediction capabilities in polar regions in a way that is meaningful to a wide variety of stakeholders. In this presentation, we will report on first contributions and experiences with the forum available at https://blogs.helmholtz.de/polarpredictionmatters/.

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Conference (Talk)
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Arctic Frontiers 2018, 23 Jan 2018 - 25 Jan 2018, Tromsø, Norway.
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Werner, K. , Goessling, H. , Hoke, W. , Bojovic, D. , Cristini, L. , Dawson, J. , Fugmann, G. , Johannsson, H. , Jung, T. , Lamers, M. , Liggett, D. , Miller, R. and Terrado, M. (2018): Polar Prediction Matters -- A Dialogue Platform to Engage with Forecast Users , Arctic Frontiers 2018, Tromsø, Norway, 23 January 2018 - 25 January 2018 .

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