Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales


Contact
lorenzo.zampieri [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

With retreating sea ice and increasing human activities in the Arctic come a growing need for reliable sea ice forecasts up to months ahead. We exploit the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction database and provide the first thorough assessment of the skill of operational forecast systems in predicting the location of the Arctic sea ice edge on these time scales. We find large differences in skill between the systems, with some showing a lack of predictive skill even at short weather time scales and the best producing skillful forecasts more than 1.5 months ahead. This highlights that the area of subseasonal prediction in the Arctic is in an early stage but also that the prospects are bright, especially for late summer forecasts. To fully exploit this potential, it is argued that it will be imperative to reduce systematic model errors and develop advanced data assimilation capacity.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
48163
DOI 10.1029/2018GL079394

Cite as
Zampieri, L. , Goessling, H. F. and Jung, T. (2018): Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales , Geophysical Research Letters . doi: 10.1029/2018GL079394


Download
[thumbnail of Zampieri_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf]
Preview
PDF
Zampieri_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf

Download (1MB) | Preview

Share
Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Citation

Geographical region

Research Platforms
N/A

Campaigns
N/A


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item