Comparative simulations of the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under simplified Paris Agreement scenarios with the models SICOPOLIS and ISSM


Contact
martin.rueckamp [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Projections of the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise comprise uncertainties that arise from the imposed climate forcing and from the underlying mathematical and numerical description used by ice flow models. Here, we present a comparative modelling study with the models SICOPOLIS, using the shallow ice approximation (SIA) on a structured grid, and ISSM, using a higher-order (HO) approximation of the Stokes equation on an unstructured grid. Starting from a paleoclimatic spin-up produced by SICOPOLIS, the models are forced with two different, simplified warming scenarios based on RCP2.6 projections from climate models, which are in line with the limit of global warming negotiated for the Paris Agreement. ISSM/HO produces lower flow speeds at the glacier termini, but more acceleration in narrow outlet glaciers compared to SICOPOLIS/SIA. This leads to a larger elevation reduction for ISSM/HO, and thus a positive feedback on the surface mass balance (with that of ISSM/HO becoming ∼50 Gt a−1 more negative). Across the two models and scenarios, the projected mass loss by 2300 is ∼62–88 mm sea level equivalent.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Research Networks
Peer revision
ISI/Scopus peer-reviewed
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
50539
DOI 10.1016/j.polar.2018.12.003

Cite as
Rückamp, M. , Greve, R. and Humbert, A. (2019): Comparative simulations of the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under simplified Paris Agreement scenarios with the models SICOPOLIS and ISSM , Polar Science, 21 , pp. 14-25 . doi: 10.1016/j.polar.2018.12.003


Download
[img]
Preview
PDF
Rueckamp_et_al_2019b.pdf

Download (3MB) | Preview

Share


Citation

Research Platforms

Campaigns


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item