Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6


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Tido.Semmler [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multi‐model ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area < 1 million km2) in September for the first time before the year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.



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ISI/Scopus peer-reviewed
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Published
Eprint ID
51815
DOI 10.1029/2019GL086749

Cite as
Notz, D. , Dörr, J. , Bailey, D. , Blockley, E. , Bushuk, M. , Debernard, J. , Dekker, E. , DeRepentigny, P. , Docquier, D. , Fuckar, N. S. , Fyfe, J. , Jahn, A. , Holland, M. , Hunke, E. , Iovino, D. , Khosravi, N. , Massonnet, F. , Madec, G. , O'Farrell, S. , Petty, A. , Rana, A. , Roach, L. , Rosenblum, E. , Rousset, C. , Semmler, T. , Stroeve, J. , Tremblay, B. , Toyoda, T. , Tsujino, H. and Vancoppenolle, M. (2020): Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 , Geophysical Research Letters . doi: 10.1029/2019GL086749


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info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727862


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