Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4919-1800, Chung, Jing Xiang, Juneng, Liew, Supari, Supari, Salimun, Ester, Ngai, Sheau Tieh, Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz, Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal, Cruz, Faye, Narisma, Gemma, Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Van Tan, Phan, Singhruck, Patama, Gunawan, Dodo, Aldrian, Edvin, Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena, Grigory, Nikulin, Remedio, Armelle Reca C., Sein, Dmitry V.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1190-3622, Hein-Griggs, David, McGregor, John L., Yang, Hongwei, Sasaki, Hidetaka and Kumar, Pankaj
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This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experi-ment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–Febru-ary (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4919-1800, Chung, Jing Xiang, Juneng, Liew, Supari, Supari, Salimun, Ester, Ngai, Sheau Tieh, Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz, Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal, Cruz, Faye, Narisma, Gemma, Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Van Tan, Phan, Singhruck, Patama, Gunawan, Dodo, Aldrian, Edvin, Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena, Grigory, Nikulin, Remedio, Armelle Reca C., Sein, Dmitry V.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1190-3622, Hein-Griggs, David, McGregor, John L., Yang, Hongwei, Sasaki, Hidetaka and Kumar, Pankaj
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