Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations


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dmitry.sein [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experi-ment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–Febru-ary (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections.



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ISI/Scopus peer-reviewed
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Published
Eprint ID
52265
DOI 10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2

Cite as
Tangang, F. , Chung, J. X. , Juneng, L. , Supari, S. , Salimun, E. , Ngai, S. T. , Jamaluddin, A. F. , Mohd, M. S. F. , Cruz, F. , Narisma, G. , Santisirisomboon, J. , Ngo-Duc, T. , Van Tan, P. , Singhruck, P. , Gunawan, D. , Aldrian, E. , Sopaheluwakan, A. , Grigory, N. , Remedio, A. R. C. , Sein, D. V. , Hein-Griggs, D. , McGregor, J. L. , Yang, H. , Sasaki, H. and Kumar, P. (2020): Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations , Climate Dynamics . doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2


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