Does the Recent Revival of Western Disturbances Govern the Karakoram Anomaly?


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dmitry.sein [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

The global retreat in glaciers is considered to be one of the critical indicators of climate change. However, the glaciers of the Karakoram (KR) region of the Karakoram–Himalayas (KH) stand out because of their divergent response, displaying a surge as opposed to glaciers in other regions. This phenomenon is known as the “Karakoram anomaly.” Although many factors control the establishment and sustenance of the anomaly, the present study establishes winter precipitation associated with western disturbances (WDs) over the KH as one of the key drivers behind its emergence. To examine the role of WDs, a tracking algorithm is applied to 39 seasons (November–March) for three separate (ERA5, MERRA-2, and NCEP-CFSR/CFSv2) reanalysis datasets. The associated reanalysis ensemble statistics of WD properties produced in terms of their intensity, precipitation/snowfall volumes, and wind speed suggest a revival in recent years over the core-anomaly regions. However, the frequency has remained steady. The Karakoram has witnessed a rise of ∼10% in precipitation intensity associated with WDs in recent decades. The high percentage of snowfall received by the Karakoram (∼65%) from WDs relative to the total seasonal snowfall suggests a crucial role in modulating the regional mass-balance anomaly. Simultaneously, the amount of snowfall from non-WD sources in the Karakoram has had a statistically significant decline of ∼17% in recent decades, coinciding with the anomaly period. The enhanced intensity of WDs is found to be associated with changes in increased baroclinic instability and a shift of the subtropical westerly jet mean latitudinal position.



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Published
Eprint ID
56240
DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0129.1

Cite as
Javed, A. , Kumar, P. , Hodges, K. I. , Sein, D. V. , Dubey, A. K. and Tiwari, G. (2022): Does the Recent Revival of Western Disturbances Govern the Karakoram Anomaly? , Journal of Climate, 35 (13), pp. 4383-4402 . doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0129.1


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