publisher:10.1029/2020gl091741
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0244-8760, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7825-5765, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2512-7238, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas
;
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0244-8760, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7825-5765, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2512-7238, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas
;
Contact
Thomas.Kleiner [ at ] awi.de
Abstract
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Item Type
Article
Authors
Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0244-8760, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7825-5765, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2512-7238, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas
;
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0244-8760, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7825-5765, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2512-7238, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas
;
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Helmholtz Research Programs > CHANGING EARTH (2021-2027) > PT2:Ocean and Cryosphere in Climate > ST2.3: Sea Level Change
Primary Topic
Helmholtz Programs > Helmholtz Research Programs > CHANGING EARTH (2021-2027) > PT2:Ocean and Cryosphere in Climate > ST2.3: Sea Level Change
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
56857
DOI
10.1029/2020gl091741
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Cite as
Payne, A. J.
,
Nowicki, S.
,
Abe‐Ouchi, A.
,
Agosta, C.
,
Alexander, P.
,
Albrecht, T.
,
Asay‐Davis, X.
,
Aschwanden, A.
,
Barthel, A.
,
Bracegirdle, T. J.
,
Calov, R.
,
Chambers, C.
,
Choi, Y.
,
Cullather, R.
,
Cuzzone, J.
,
Dumas, C.
,
Edwards, T. L.
,
Felikson, D.
,
Fettweis, X.
,
Galton‐Fenzi, B. K.
,
Goelzer, H.
,
Gladstone, R.
,
Golledge, N. R.
,
Gregory, J. M.
,
Greve, R.
,
Hattermann, T.
,
Hoffman, M. J.
,
Humbert, A.
,
Huybrechts, P.
,
Jourdain, N. C.
,
Kleiner, T.
,
Munneke, P. K.
,
Larour, E.
,
Le clec'h, S.
,
Lee, V.
,
Leguy, G.
,
Lipscomb, W. H.
,
Little, C. M.
,
Lowry, D. P.
,
Morlighem, M.
,
Nias, I.
,
Pattyn, F.
,
Pelle, T.
,
Price, S. F.
,
Quiquet, A.
,
Reese, R.
,
Rückamp, M.
,
Schlegel, N.
,
Seroussi, H.
,
Shepherd, A.
,
Simon, E.
,
Slater, D.
,
Smith, R. S.
,
Straneo, F.
,
Sun, S.
,
Tarasov, L.
,
Trusel, L. D.
,
Van Breedam, J.
,
Wal, R.
,
Broeke, M.
,
Winkelmann, R.
,
Zhao, C.
,
Zhang, T.
and
Zwinger, T.
(2021):
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
,
Geophysical Research Letters,
48
(16),
e2020GL091741
.
doi: 10.1029/2020gl091741
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