The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

hdl:10013/epic.ea1662b3-9833-4ff5-9f1d-94b04c078e14

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Kreibich, Heidi, Van Loon, Anne F., Schröter, Kai, Ward, Philip J., Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Sairam, Nivedita, Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho, Agafonova, Svetlana, AghaKouchak, Amir, Aksoy, Hafzullah, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, Aznar, Blanca, Balkhi, Laila, Barendrecht, Marlies H., Biancamaria, Sylvain, Bos-Burgering, Liduin, Bradley, Chris, Budiyono, Yus, Buytaert, Wouter, Capewell, Lucinda, Carlson, Hayley, Cavus, Yonca, Couasnon, Anaïs, Coxon, Gemma, Daliakopoulos, Ioannis, de Ruiter, Marleen C., Delus, Claire, Erfurt, Mathilde, Esposito, Giuseppe, François, Didier, Frappart, Frédéric, Freer, Jim, Frolova, Natalia, Gain, Animesh K., Grillakis, Manolis, Grima, Jordi Oriol, Guzmán, Diego A., Huning, Laurie S., Ionita, Monica

, Kharlamov, Maxim, Khoi, Dao Nguyen, Kieboom, Natalie, Kireeva, Maria, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Li, Hong-Yi, LLasat, María Carmen, Macdonald, David, Mård, Johanna, Mathew-Richards, Hannah, McKenzie, Andrew, Mejia, Alfonso, Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario, Mens, Marjolein, Mobini, Shifteh, Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna, Nagavciuc, Viorica, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Thao Nguyen Huynh, Thi, Nhi, Pham Thi Thao, Petrucci, Olga, Nguyen, Hong Quan, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Razavi, Saman, Ridolfi, Elena, Riegel, Jannik, Sadik, Md Shibly, Savelli, Elisa, Sazonov, Alexey, Sharma, Sanjib, Sörensen, Johanna, Arguello Souza, Felipe Augusto, Stahl, Kerstin, Steinhausen, Max, Stoelzle, Michael, Szalińska, Wiwiana, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Fuqiang, Tokarczyk, Tamara, Tovar, Carolina, Tran, Thi Van Thu, Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J., van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vorogushyn, Sergiy, Wagener, Thorsten, Wang, Yueling, Wendt, Doris E., Wickham, Elliot, Yang, Long, Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio, Blöschl, Günter and Di Baldassarre, Giuliano ;

Contact

Monica.Ionita [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.

Item Type

Article

Authors

Divisions

AWI Organizations > Climate Sciences > Paleo-climate Dynamics

Primary Division

Organizations > AWI Organizations > Climate Sciences > Paleo-climate Dynamics

Programs

Helmholtz Research Programs > CHANGING EARTH (2021-2027) > PT2:Ocean and Cryosphere in Climate > ST2.2: Variability and Extremes

Primary Topic

Helmholtz Programs > Helmholtz Research Programs > CHANGING EARTH (2021-2027) > PT2:Ocean and Cryosphere in Climate > ST2.2: Variability and Extremes

Helmholtz Cross Cutting Activity (2021-2027)

CARF:REKLIM:Regional Climate Change and Humans

Publication Status

Published

Eprint ID

56918

DOI 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

Cite as

Kreibich, H. , Van Loon, A. F. , Schröter, K. , Ward, P. J. , Mazzoleni, M. , Sairam, N. , Abeshu, G. W. , Agafonova, S. , AghaKouchak, A. , Aksoy, H. , Alvarez-Garreton, C. , Aznar, B. , Balkhi, L. , Barendrecht, M. H. , Biancamaria, S. , Bos-Burgering, L. , Bradley, C. , Budiyono, Y. , Buytaert, W. , Capewell, L. , Carlson, H. , Cavus, Y. , Couasnon, A. , Coxon, G. , Daliakopoulos, I. , de Ruiter, M. C. , Delus, C. , Erfurt, M. , Esposito, G. , François, D. , Frappart, F. , Freer, J. , Frolova, N. , Gain, A. K. , Grillakis, M. , Grima, J. O. , Guzmán, D. A. , Huning, L. S. , Ionita, M. , Kharlamov, M. , Khoi, D. N. , Kieboom, N. , Kireeva, M. , Koutroulis, A. , Lavado-Casimiro, W. , Li, H. Y. , LLasat, M. C. , Macdonald, D. , Mård, J. , Mathew-Richards, H. , McKenzie, A. , Mejia, A. , Mendiondo, E. M. , Mens, M. , Mobini, S. , Mohor, G. S. , Nagavciuc, V. , Ngo-Duc, T. , Thao Nguyen Huynh, T. , Nhi, P. T. T. , Petrucci, O. , Nguyen, H. Q. , Quintana-Seguí, P. , Razavi, S. , Ridolfi, E. , Riegel, J. , Sadik, M. S. , Savelli, E. , Sazonov, A. , Sharma, S. , Sörensen, J. , Arguello Souza, F. A. , Stahl, K. , Steinhausen, M. , Stoelzle, M. , Szalińska, W. , Tang, Q. , Tian, F. , Tokarczyk, T. , Tovar, C. , Tran, T. V. T. , Van Huijgevoort, M. H. J. , van Vliet, M. T. H. , Vorogushyn, S. , Wagener, T. , Wang, Y. , Wendt, D. E. , Wickham, E. , Yang, L. , Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. , Blöschl, G. and Di Baldassarre, G. (2022): The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management , Nature, 608 (7921), pp. 80-86 . doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

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