Comparing helicopter-borne surface temperature maps in winter and optical orthomosaics in summer from the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition, we find a strong geometric correlation between warm anomalies in winter and melt pond location the following summer. Warm anomalies are associated with thinner snow and ice, that is, surface depression and refrozen leads, that allow for water accumulation during melt. Warm surface temperature anomalies in January were 0.3–2.5 K warmer on sea ice that later formed melt ponds. A one-dimensional steady-state thermodynamic model shows that the observed surface temperature differences are in line with the observed ice thickness and snow depth. We demonstrate the potential of seasonal prediction of summer melt pond location and coverage from winter surface temperature observations. A threshold-based classification achieves a correct classification for 41% of the melt ponds.