Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming


Contact
Christian.Stepanek [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Satellite observations covering the last four decades reveal an ocean warming pattern resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern has therefore been widely interpreted as a manifestation of natural climate variability. Here, we re-examine the observed warming pattern and find that the predominant warming over the subtropical oceans, while mild warming or even cooling over the subpolar ocean, is dynamically consistent with the convergence and divergence of surface water. By comparison of observations, paleo-reconstructions, and model simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is likely a short-term transient response to the increased CO2 forcing, which only emerges during the early stage of anthropogenic warming. On centennial to millennial timescales, the subpolar ocean warming is expected to exceed the temporally dominant warming of the subtropical ocean. This delayed but amplified subpolar ocean warming has the potential to reshape the ocean-atmosphere circulation and threaten the stability of marine-terminating ice sheets.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Helmholtz Cross Cutting Activity (2021-2027)
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
57774
DOI 10.1038/s43247-023-00839-w

Cite as
Yang, H. , Lohmann, G. , Stepanek, C. , Wang, Q. , Huang, R. X. , Shi, X. , Liu, J. , Chen, D. , Wang, X. , Zhong, Y. , Yang, Q. , Bao, Y. and Müller, J. (2023): Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming , Communications Earth & Environment, 4 (1), pp. 1-10 . doi: 10.1038/s43247-023-00839-w


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