Global sensitivity analysis of a one-dimensional ocean biogeochemical model


Contact
lars.nerger [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Ocean biogeochemical (BGC) models are a powerful tool for investigating ocean biogeochemistry and the global carbon cycle. The potential benefits emanating from BGC simulations and predictions are broad, with significant societal impacts from fisheries management to carbon dioxide removal and policy-making. These models contain numerous parameters, each coupled with large uncertainties, leading to significant uncertainty in the model outputs. This study performs a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of an ocean BGC model to identify the uncertain parameters that impact the variability of model outputs most. The BGC model Regulated Ecosystem Model 2 is used in a one-dimensional configuration at two ocean sites in the North Atlantic (BATS) and the Mediterranean Sea (DYFAMED). Variance-based Sobol' indices are computed to identify the most influential parameters for each site for the quantities of interest (QoIs) commonly considered for the calibration and validation of BGC models. The most sensitive parameters are the chlorophyll to nitrogen ratio, chlorophyll degradation rate, zooplankton grazing and excretion parameters, photosynthesis parameters, and nitrogen and carbon remineralization rate. Overall, the sensitivities of most QoIs were similar across the two sites; however, some differences emerged because of different mixed layer depths. The results suggest that implementing multiple zooplankton function types in BGC models can improve BGC predictions. Further, explicitly implementing heterotrophic bacteria in the model can better simulate the carbon export production and CO2 fluxes. The study offers a comprehensive list of the most important BGC parameters that need to be quantified for future modeling applications and insights for BGC model developments.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
58261
DOI 10.18174/sesmo.18613

Cite as
Mamnun, N. , Völker, C. , Krumscheid, S. , Vrekoussis, M. and Nerger, L. (2023): Global sensitivity analysis of a one-dimensional ocean biogeochemical model , Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 5 , pp. 1-30 . doi: 10.18174/sesmo.18613


Download
[thumbnail of Mamnun_etal_SESMO5_18613_2023.pdf]
Preview
PDF
Mamnun_etal_SESMO5_18613_2023.pdf

Download (733kB) | Preview

Share
Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Citation

Research Platforms


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item