Hotspot movement of compound events on the Europe continent


Contact
Monica.Ionita [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Climate indices are often used as a climate monitoring tool, allowing us to understand how the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events are changing over time. Here, based on complex statistical analysis we identify highly correlated significant pairs of compound events at the highest spatial resolution, on a monthly temporal scale across Europe. Continental-scale monthly analysis unleashes information on compound events such as high-risk zones, hotspots, monthly shifts of hotspots and trends, risk exposure to land cover and population, and identification of maximum increasing trends. While there are many studies on single or compound climate extremes there are only a few studies that addresses the relationship between pairs of hazards, the incorporation of bioclimatic indices, the determination of a grid best-fit copula approach, and the outlining relevance of this work of compound event risks with exposures. In this respect, here, using 27-bivariate and 10-trivariate copula models, we show that the different hazard pairs have high combined risks of indices related to radiation, temperature, evapotranspiration, bioclimatic-based indices, such as the universal thermal climate index, wind chill index, and heat index, mainly over the northern and eastern European countries. Furthermore, we show that over the last 7 decades, agricultural and coastal areas are highly exposed to the risks of defined hotspots of compound events. In some of the hotspots of compound events-identified by clusters, there is no monthly shifts of hotspots, leading to higher impacts when compounded. Future work needs to integrate the framework and process to identify other compound pairs.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Helmholtz Cross Cutting Activity (2021-2027)
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
58646
DOI 10.1038/s41598-023-45067-6

Cite as
Doshi, S. C. , Lohmann, G. and Ionita, M. (2023): Hotspot movement of compound events on the Europe continent , Scientific Reports, 13 (1), p. 18100 . doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-45067-6


Download
[thumbnail of Hotspot movement of compound events on the Europe continent.pdf]
Preview
PDF
Hotspot movement of compound events on the Europe continent.pdf

Download (7MB) | Preview

Share
Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Citation


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item