Constraining the trend in the ocean CO2 sink during 2000–2022


Contact
judith.hauck [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

The ocean will ultimately store most of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by human activities. Despite its importance, estimates of the 2000−2022 trend in the ocean CO2 sink differ by a factor of two between observation-based products and process-based models. Here we address this discrepancy using a hybrid approach that preserves the consistency of known processes but constrains the outcome using observations. We show that the hybrid approach reproduces the stagnation of the ocean CO2 sink in the 1990s and its reinvigoration in the 2000s suggested by observation-based products and matches their amplitude. It suggests that process-based models underestimate the amplitude of the decadal variability in the ocean CO2 sink, but that observation-based products on average overestimate the decadal trend in the 2010s. The hybrid approach constrains the 2000−2022 trend in the ocean CO2 sink to 0.42 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1 decade−1, and by inference the total land CO2 sink to 0.28 ± 0.13 Pg C yr−1 decade−1.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
59411
DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-52641-7

Cite as
Mayot, N. , Buitenhuis, E. T. , Wright, R. M. , Hauck, J. , Bakker, D. C. and Le Quéré, C. (2024): Constraining the trend in the ocean CO2 sink during 2000–2022 , Nature Communications, 15 (1), p. 8429 . doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-52641-7


Download
[thumbnail of Mayot et al. - 2024 - Constraining the trend in the ocean CO2 sink durin.pdf]
Preview
PDF
Mayot et al. - 2024 - Constraining the trend in the ocean CO2 sink durin.pdf - Other

Download (1MB) | Preview

Share
Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Citation

Research Platforms


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item