Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation


Contact
thomas.jung [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate variability globally, encompassing various other modes of variability, and thus represents a key predictable climate signal on seasonal timescales. Yet, its response to greenhouse warming remains uncertain, with models projecting a range of outcomes. Here, we demonstrate that in response to warming, a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model simulates a rapid transition from a moderate-amplitude irregular regime, as observed in the current climate, to a highly regular oscillation with intensifying amplitude. This behaviour can be attributed to increasing air-sea feedbacks, which approach criticality in the second half of this century, and growing atmospheric noise. As ENSO intensifies in this model, it synchronizes with other prominent climate modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, thereby imprinting its regular, predictable variability on them. If realized, this global climate mode resonance would have wide-ranging whiplash impacts on regional hydroclimates.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Primary Topic
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
60692
DOI 10.1038/s41467-025-64619-0

Cite as
Stuecker, M. F. , Zhao, S. , Timmermann, A. , Ghosh, R. , Semmler, T. , Lee, S. S. , Moon, J. Y. , Jin, F. F. and Jung, T. (2025): Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation , Nature Communications, 16 (1), p. 9013 . doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-64619-0


Download
[thumbnail of s41467-025-64619-0.pdf]
Preview
PDF
s41467-025-64619-0.pdf - Other

Download (5MB) | Preview

Share
Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Citation

Research Platforms
N/A


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item