Drivers of winter Arctic sea ice variability


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petru.cosmin.vaideanu [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Winter Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) variability reflects both anthropogenic warming and internal climate variability, but separating their Arctic signatures remains difficult. Here, we apply Canonical Correlation Analysis to October–March global sea surface temperature and Arctic SIC, 2-m air temperature (T2M), and sea level pressure fields over 1950–2024, to isolate coupled modes associated with anthropogenic influence, multidecadal and interannual internal variability. The leading pair represents the winter Arctic response to anthropogenic warming, explaining 35% of SIC and 43% of T2M variance, and is characterized by basin-wide SIC loss coupled with increased T2M. The second pair captures a similar but weaker in magnitude multidecadal signal, with the strongest SIC impacts in the Barents–Kara Seas and Baffin Bay. Two additional pairs reflect interannual variability and show dipolar SIC–T2M structures. Causality and physical diagnostics support these attributions, showing mainly thermodynamic coupling for anthropogenic and multidecadal drivers and circulation-driven advection for interannual pairs. Since 1980, Arctic winter SIC decline has been dominated across most sectors by the anthropogenic impact, with additional regional modulation from multidecadal Atlantic variability.



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Eprint ID
60839
DOI 10.1038/s41612-026-01438-0

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Vaideanu, P. C. , Stepanek, C. , Nichita, D. , Dima, M. , Ionita, M. and Lohmann, G. (2026): Drivers of winter Arctic sea ice variability , npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 9 (1), pp. 1-11 . doi: 10.1038/s41612-026-01438-0


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