A sea ice free Arctic: CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track abrupt-127k experimental protocol and motivation
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3912-6271, Brierley, Chris, Schroeder, David, Kageyama, Masa, Pollock, Matthew, Malmierca-Vallet, Irene, Blockley, Ed, West, Alex, Feltham, Danny, Ridley, Jeff, Braconnot, Pascale, Williams, Charles JR, Shi, Xiaoxu, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L, Macarewich, Sophia I, Ramos Buarque, Silvana, Zhang, Qiong, LeGrande, Allegra, Zheng, Weipeng, Jiang, Dabang, Morozova, Polina, Guo, Chuncheng, Zhang, Zhongshi, Yeung, Nicholas, Menviel, Laurie, Narayanasetti, Sandeep, Yoshimori, Masakazu, Reeves, Olivia and Zhao, Anni
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Given that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer within the next ten to 20 years, accurately predicting low-ice states is of crucial importance. Paleo-evidence shows that the strong orbitally-induced high latitude insolation anomaly at 127 000 years ago (127 ky), of around +70 W m−2 in the Arctic during spring-summer, led to warm conditions and an Arctic that was occasionally or often ice-free during summer. Building on two Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs): the Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project and the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, we propose an Assessment Fast Track experiment, abrupt-127k, focusing on this seasonally ice-free, or near ice-free, Arctic at 127 ky. The abrupt-127k experiment is initialised from a piControl simulation and abruptly imposes observed values for the insolation distribution and greenhouse gas forcing at 127 ky. It provides a new opportunity to evaluate models used to compute climate projections, both against paleo-evidence and each other, during a known low Arctic sea ice state. As CMIP models are not usually tuned to paleo observations, abrupt-127k represents a true “out-of-sample” test. The abrupt-127k experiment has four key scientific objectives, to: ascertain the simulated Arctic sea ice state, including the presence and characteristics of last-ice areas; evaluate the simulated climates using Arctic paleo-evidence; characterise the central Arctic surface energy budget; and analyse the ice budget including ice melt, growth, and transport. We show that a large Arctic ice response will manifest within the first 30 years of the simulation, thus a single 100-year long run is sufficient for these objectives. Modelling groups are requested to follow standard CMIP output protocol for analysis, including the use of standard “fixed-length” output. Given abrupt-127k is similar in setup to abrupt-2xCO2 and abrupt-4xCO2 CMIP7 experiments, combined analysis of these abrupt-experiments will facilitate understanding of the impacts of instantaneous radiative forcing in the Arctic.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3912-6271, Brierley, Chris, Schroeder, David, Kageyama, Masa, Pollock, Matthew, Malmierca-Vallet, Irene, Blockley, Ed, West, Alex, Feltham, Danny, Ridley, Jeff, Braconnot, Pascale, Williams, Charles JR, Shi, Xiaoxu, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L, Macarewich, Sophia I, Ramos Buarque, Silvana, Zhang, Qiong, LeGrande, Allegra, Zheng, Weipeng, Jiang, Dabang, Morozova, Polina, Guo, Chuncheng, Zhang, Zhongshi, Yeung, Nicholas, Menviel, Laurie, Narayanasetti, Sandeep, Yoshimori, Masakazu, Reeves, Olivia and Zhao, Anni
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Helmholtz Research Programs > CHANGING EARTH (2021-2027) > PT2:Ocean and Cryosphere in Climate > ST2.2: Variability and Extremes
