Poleward Shift of Arctic Oceanic CO2 Uptake From Asymmetric Seasonal Changes Under Climate Warming


Contact
qiang.wang [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

The Arctic region plays a disproportionate role in the global carbon cycle by acting as a critical sink for atmospheric CO<inf>2</inf>. However, how Arctic air-sea CO<inf>2</inf> fluxes will respond to continued warming regarding their spatial and temporal changes remains poorly understood. Here, using 14 CMIP6 Earth System Models, we find that Arctic CO<inf>2</inf> uptake exhibits nonmonotonic trends over the 21st century, initially increasing and then declining, alongside a pronounced poleward shift in regions with high CO<inf>2</inf> uptake. This shift is driven primarily by sea ice retreat and warming-induced rise in sea surface CO<inf>2</inf> partial pressure (pCO<inf>2</inf>) that decreases air-sea pCO<inf>2</inf> difference, which together lead to seasonally asymmetric changes in regional CO<inf>2</inf> uptake. By the end of the 21st Century, the Polar Sea surpasses the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean exceeds the Nordic Seas in CO<inf>2</inf> uptake. These findings indicate the importance of accurately simulating Arctic climate processes to assess future carbon-climate feedbacks and their implications for global climate mitigation.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
60919
DOI 10.1029/2025ef007550

Cite as
Pan, R. , Shu, Q. , Wang, Q. , Xue, L. , Liu, Y. , Bao, Y. , Zhang, M. , Feng, Z. , Song, Z. , He, Y. , Wang, S. and Qiao, F. (2026): Poleward Shift of Arctic Oceanic CO2 Uptake From Asymmetric Seasonal Changes Under Climate Warming , Earth's Future, 14 (5) . doi: 10.1029/2025ef007550


Download
[thumbnail of Pan_ArcticCO2_2026.pdf]
Preview
PDF
Pan_ArcticCO2_2026.pdf - Other

Download (4MB) | Preview

Share
Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Citation

Research Platforms
N/A


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item