Assimilating Summer Sea‐Ice Thickness Observations Improves Arctic Sea‐Ice Forecast


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Ruizhe.Song [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Accurate Arctic sea-ice forecasting for the melt season is still a major challenge because of the lack of reliable pan-Arctic summer sea-ice thickness (SIT) data. A new summer CryoSat-2 SIT observation data set based on an artificial intelligence algorithm may alleviate this situation. We assess the impact of this new data set on the initialization of sea-ice forecasts in the melt seasons of 2015 and 2016 in a coupled sea ice-ocean model with data assimilation. We find that the assimilation of the summer CryoSat-2 SIT observations can reduce the summer ice-edge forecast error. Further, adding SIT observations to an established forecast system with sea-ice concentration assimilation leads to more realistic short-term summer ice-edge forecasts in the Arctic Pacific sector. The long-term Arctic-wide SIT prediction is also improved. In spite of remaining uncertainties, summer CryoSat-2 SIT observations have the potential to improve Arctic sea-ice forecast on multiple time scales.



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Published
Eprint ID
58946
DOI 10.1029/2024gl110405

Cite as
Song, R. , Mu, L. , Loza, S. N. , Kauker, F. and Chen, X. (2024): Assimilating Summer Sea‐Ice Thickness Observations Improves Arctic Sea‐Ice Forecast , Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (13) . doi: 10.1029/2024gl110405


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